Robust optimization of bulk gas distribution

摘要

Techniques are disclosed for increasing the robustness of optimization solutions for bulk gas distribution, relative to uncertain events such as unexpected plant outages. The techniques actively consider different assumptions regarding unexpected plant outages while searching for a solution (i.e., when generating a delivery schedule). A robust solution (delivery schedule) is one on which a plant outage only has a limited impact. A computer-implemented delivery scheduling application may identify a robust solution that performs well with respect to a range of uncertain future conditions (e.g., a variety of plant outages), at the lowest additional cost to the producer/distributor relative to other solutions.

主权项

1. A computer-implemented method for generating a robust delivery schedule for delivering a commodity product to a set of customers, the method comprising:
generating, by operation of at least one computer processor, one or more production outage scenarios based on historical production facility outage data, wherein each production outage scenario specifies a period of time during which a first one of one or more production facilities is presumed to be unavailable to produce the commodity product, wherein the commodity product comprises industrial gases delivered to a storage tank at each customer site via at least one delivery truck; generating a set of solutions, wherein each solution specifies a delivery schedule for delivering the commodity product to the set of customers; determining a cost for each solution relative to each generated scenario; evaluating the cost of each solution according to a specified evaluation method to compute a robustness measure for each solution, wherein the robustness measure is determined based an expected change in the cost of the solution relative to the one or more production outage scenarios; and returning, as the robust delivery schedule, a solution having a best determined cost versus robustness measure tradeoff, relative to other solutions in the generated set of solutions.