Method and apparatus for root cause and critical pattern prediction using virtual directed graphs

摘要

An approach to root cause determination in a complex systems based on monitoring and event data is disclosed. It includes a historical analysis of events with their probabilistic correlations. Applying information measures between the random variables which embody those events one can detect origins of problems and generate real-time recommendations for their locations in a hierarchical system. Estimation of system bottlenecks, as well as the risk of “black swan”-type events are also computed. The processes are based on a statistical processing of a virtual directed graph produced from historical events.

主权项

1. A method for determining a causative event in an information technology infrastructure comprising:
collecting historical event data with a computer; generating an undirected graph, each node being an event and each edge being a joint probability of two events historically occurring simultaneously; generating a directed graph, each node being the event and each edge being a conditional probability of a second event occurring if a first event occurs; reducing the undirected graph by discarding edges based on mutual information calculated for each edge; reducing the directed graph by discarding edges that correspond to discarded edges of the undirected graph; and from the directed graph, creating and outputting an historical list of recommendations to a user, the historical list of recommendations comprising an at least one event deemed to be the most likely causative event.