Probabilistic decision making system and methods of use

摘要

Embodiments of this invention comprise modeling a subject's state and the influence of training scenarios, or actions, on that state to create a training policy. Both state and effects of actions are modeled as probabilistic using Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) techniques. The POMDP is well suited to decision-theoretic planning under uncertainty. Utilizing this model and the resulting training policy with real world subjects creates a surprisingly effective decision aid for instructors to improve learning relative to a traditional scenario selection strategy. POMDP provides a more valid representation of trainee state and training effects, thus it is capable of producing more valid recommendations concerning how to structure training to subjects.