NATURAL ENERGY AMOUNT PREDICTION DEVICE

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a natural energy amount prediction device capable of accurately calculating a prediction value of an energy amount per unit time which can be obtained from natural energy.SOLUTION: A control device 21a comprises a prediction processing section 50 which has: an input section 51; a first parameter calculation section 52; a second parameter calculation section 53; a probability density function calculation section 54; a mode value calculation section 55; a confident interval calculation section 56; an erroneous prediction probability calculation section 57; and an output section 58. In the prediction processing section 50, the second parameter calculation section 53 obtains a parameter &phgr;(x) related to dispersion of asymmetric distribution using an explanatory variable x; the probability density function calculation section 54 calculates probability density distribution f(y) of a predicted amount of solar radiation y using the parameter &phgr;(x); the mode value calculation section 55 calculates a mode value yof the solar radiation y on the basis of the probability density distribution f(y); the confident interval calculation section 56 calculates a confident interval Ya including the mode value y; and the erroneous prediction probability calculation section 57 calculates an erroneous prediction probability Pr_e of an erroneous prediction contrary to the amount of solar radiation y.