| 摘要 |
PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a power generation amount prediction method in photovoltaic power generation, which allows for high accuracy prediction of power generation amount in photovoltaic power generation, without actually measuring the sunshine intensity (solar radiation), temperature, and power generation amount in real time.SOLUTION: From the power generation achievement of a photovoltaic power generator 60, a power generation efficiency pattern unique to the photovoltaic power generator 60, and an approximate expression indicating the power generation efficiency pattern thereof are determined. At the installation site of the photovoltaic power generator 60, global solar radiation S at each time from sunrise to sunset is obtained, and a cumulative global solar radiation X is calculated by accumulating the global solar radiation S at each time until power generation. From the cumulative global solar radiation X, power generation efficiency Y of the photovoltaic power generator 60 is obtained by using an approximate expression indicating the power generation efficiency pattern of the photovoltaic power generator 60. The power generation efficiency Y thus obtained is corrected by the prediction temperature during power generation, and then the power generation amount (Z) at each time is obtained from an expression of; power generation amount (Z)=maximum output (Mx)×global solar radiation (S) at each time×power generation efficiency (Y0) at each time. |
