METHOD OF PRISM BASED DOWNSCALING ESTIMATION MODEL

摘要

A method for generating high-resolution grid-type scenario data on changes in the future climate according to the present invention comprises the steps of: applying currently observed climate data, which are collected, to an MK-PRISM model to generate the observed climate data of a high-resolution grid type; calculating an observed climate value of a day-time scale by using the generated the observed climate data of the high-resolution grid type; objectively analyzing current climate data and future climate data simulated by a local climate model to generate the current climate data and the future climate data of the high-resolution grid type; calculating a model climate value of a day-time scale by using the generated current climate data of the high-resolution grid type; generating the variation of the future climate scenario of the local climate model by using the calculated model climate value; combining the calculated observed climate value and the generated variation of the future climate scenario; and climatologically correcting each variable of the combined result. The present invention resolves problems caused by a systematic error and a seasonal variation which low-resolution scenario data on changes in the climate simulated by the local climate model contain, and generates low-resolution grid-type scenario data on changes in the future climate, to which climate characteristics according to high-resolution geographic information more than 1 km are reflected, thereby providing reliable information. [Reference numerals] (AA) Start;(BB) End;(S101) Create high-resolution grid type climate observation data by processing observed climate data with an PRISM model;(S102) Calculate an observed climate value by using the high-resolution grid type climate observation data;(S103) Generate high-resolution grid type current and future climate data and the future climate data by processing the current and future climate data discussed in a local climate model with an objective analysis method;(S104) Calculate a model climate value using the generated high-resolution grid type current and future climate data;(S105) Generate the variation of the future climate scenario of the local climate model by using the calculated model climate value;(S106) Combine the observed climate value and the generated variation of the future climate scenario;(S107) Climatologically correct each variable of the combined result