Method for determining daily weighting factors for use in forecasting daily product sales

摘要

A product demand forecasting methodology is presented that applies daily weight values to a weekly forecast to determine daily forecasts for a product or service. The method determines daily weight values for use in forecasting current product sales by blending daily weight values calculated from historical demand data for both recent weeks and year-prior weeks. Recent weeks are used to account for recent correlations and alternation effects, and year-prior weeks are used to account for seasonality effects. The method automatically calculates a measure of significance for the daily weights calculated from the recent weeks and year-prior weeks. The significance of each week is applied as a weighting factor during the blending of recent weeks and year-prior daily weight values.