| 摘要 |
A method is described for a medium-long term meteorological forecast starting from the meteorological parameters of a large-scale geographical area (SG) having a predefined extent. The method comprises the following phases: decomposing the meteorological parameters of the large-scale geographical area (SG) into a base component and a part which arises as a variation on a regional scale (SR), wherein the variation on a regional scale (SR) is defined as the difference between the large-scale geographical area (SG) and the base area; determining the temperature close to the surface of the base area, starting from the parameters available on the large- scale geographical area (SG), using an empirical- statistical model (statistical down-scaling); determining the deviation in the meteorological parameters on a regional scale (SR), starting from the parameters available on the large-scale geographical area (SG), using a dynamic numerical model (dynamic down-scaling); effecting the combination (ensemble down-scaling), through an applicative model, of the empirical-statistical model (statistical down-scaling) and the dynamic numerical model (dynamic down-scaling) to obtain the medium and long-term temperature forecast. |
