TIME SERIES AND FUZZY BASED SHORT TERM ELCTRONIC LOAD FORECASTING APPARATUS AND MOTHOD FOR SMART GRID

摘要

PURPOSE: A short period power load prediction device based on a time line for smart grid is provided to offer low error rates and low deviation rates by calculating short power load prediction rates through an exponential smoothing method and a fuzzy method based on power usage rates. CONSTITUTION: A resource acquisition unit(110) acquires temperature information and power usage rates in a smart grid environment. A power database(130) stores the power usage rates per a day, and a load prediction service unit predicts power load for the power usage rates. A power load estimation unit(200) calculates short power load prediction rates using an exponential smoothing method and a fuzzy method based on the temperature information and the predicted power usage rate. A scheduling unit(150) transmits power to a power usage medium based on the predicted short period power load. The power load estimation unit includes an exponential smoothing method module, a fuzzy method module, and a power load prediction calculation module. [Reference numerals] (100) Short period power load prediction device; (110) Resource acquisition unit; (120) Load prediction service unit; (130) Power database; (150) Scheduling unit; (200) Power load estimation unit; (210) Exponential smoothing module; (300) Purge method module; (AA) Power usage; (BB) Short power load prediction rate;