Method and device for determining a probability of occurrence

摘要

IN a method and a device for determining a probability of occurrence that an overall system fulfills a predefined system performance, the overall system is composed of instances of different classes of partial systems, and each class of partial systems has an associated class fault tree. The method has the following steps: (a) calculating (S1) an overall performance for each failure combination of the number of non-failed instances within a class; (b) automatic selection (S2) of failure combinations, the calculated overall performance of which fulfills the predefined system performance; (c) automatic generation (S3) of an overall fault tree based on the class fault trees of partial systems as a function of the selected failure combinations; and (d) evaluating (S4) of the generated overall fault tree for calculating the probability of occurrence of a fulfillment of the predefined system performance by the overall system.