| 摘要 |
<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a method capable of being used in an analysis as time series data, which can be used as a method of estimating an output fluctuation when a mass introduction of natural energy generation is realized in the future. <P>SOLUTION: In estimating an output fluctuation of power generation output when natural energy generators are installed at M sites in future, while at present natural energy generators are installed at N sites, an actual measurement-type total output fluctuation spectrum S<SB POS="POST">mea.N</SB>(f) is to be obtained by using actual measurement data obtained at N sites as time series data of an output fluctuation, which become a base of the estimation, totaling the time series data of the output fluctuation obtained by the actual measurements and converting a result to frequency data. Then a future estimation of fluctuation spectrum S<SB POS="POST">tra.N→M</SB>(f) is obtained based on the spectrum S<SB POS="POST">mea.N</SB>(f) and on a formula of a gain function G(f) expressed when the natural energy generators are increased from N sites to M sites, and a time series data of estimated fluctuation P<SB POS="POST">tra.N→M</SB>(t) is calculated by converting the estimation of fluctuation spectrum S<SB POS="POST">tra.N→M</SB>(f) to a time series data. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2012,JPO&INPIT |
