| 摘要 |
A method for prognostication of survival of patients with heart failure associated with the type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) involves generally accepted clinical-instrumental examinations and laboratory blood analyses, on the basis of logistic analysis of obtained individual data the independent variable survival predictors are found. As echocardiography predictor a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is selected, the survival of patients is estimated for selected period of observation. Additionally the body mass index (BMI), systolic discharge (SD) of the left ventricle (LV), hemoglobin level (Hb) are selected as independent survival predictors, and according to the results of additional polymerase chain reaction the polymorphism of &bgr;1-adrenoreceptor genes is determined by two mutations (Arg389Gly and Ser49Gly). The obtained data are entered into computer database, estimation of prognosis of survival of patients during 12 months of observation is performed by equation of logistic regression:Ps=1/1+e, where:Ps is the prognosis of survival of patients during 12 months of observation;e is the base of natural logarithm (ln) that equals to 2.7184;y=K1*SD+K2*Hb+K3*BMI+K4*Gly389Arg+K5*Ser49Ser+K6*DM+K7*EF+C is this linear equation, that is presented as the total result obtained from addition of independent predictors of survival (SD, Hb, BMI, Gly389Arg, Ser49Ser, presence of DM, EF), each of that is multiplied by determined regressive coefficient (K1=-4.138, K2=15.682, K3=-41.605, K4=206.784, K5=338.105, K6=154.265, K7=-6.838), and represents the quantum of each independent predictor in the prognosis of survival during 12 months, C is the constant that equals 1,220, and if Ps value is less than 1.0 the probability of favorable course of a disease and survival of patients during 12 months of observation is predicted, and if Ps value is more or equals to 1.0 the probability of lethal outcome during 12 months of observation is predicted as a result of progression of heart failure. |
