FUTURE COST ESTIMATE FORECASTING FOR TECHNOLOGIES

摘要

A system for forecasting a future cost estimate for a technology includes a cost receipt unit configured to receive a first cost point and a second cost point identifying a starting cost at a first time period and a midpoint cost at a second time period, and calculate a third cost point to express the first cost point and the second cost point in a range of zero to one. The system also includes a base curve unit configured to determine a base S-curve from the first cost point, the second cost point and the third cost point. The system includes a weighting unit configured to receive weightings of cost-reduction drivers. The system includes a base curve adjustment unit configured to adjust the base S-curve based on the weightings of the cost-reduction drivers to create an adjusted S-curve.