DEMAND FORECAST DEVICE, DEMAND FORECAST METHOD, AND PROGRAM

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To forecast a demand of a conventional service with sufficient accuracy in a medium and long term.

SOLUTION: A demand forecast device includes: a structural change point detecting function part 30 for detecting structural change points of the demand from a second conventional service to a second succeeding service in a transition period when the second conventional service related to a first conventional service exists and the second conventional service is replaced with the second succeeding service; a structural change point coincidence checking function part 40 for determining whether the structural change points are coincident or not; and a demand forecast calculating function part 50 for defining the coincident structural change points as structural change points of the demand of the first conventional service when the structural change points are coincident, specifying a demand forecast curve by performing time axis conversion processing and regression analysis processing with respect to time series data of the demand actual result of the first conventional service after the structural change points, and calculating the demand forecast value of the first conventional service based on the demand forecast curve.

COPYRIGHT: (C)2011,JPO&INPIT