| 摘要 |
Systems and methods are disclosed that assist in making decisions, valuing a choice or action, promoting creative solutions, and reducing risks. Among other situations, the systems and methods consider situations where the user or users are evaluating a possible single choice or several alternative choices. The criteria to evaluate the decisions are input into a grid, and the user or users rate the one or more alternatives against the different criteria. Given several alternative choices or options, the system and method provides the probability each alternative is the right selection. In one embodiment, the system implements a Bayesian approach. The systems and methods may estimate the value of an option or choice, where the value might be financial or other metric, and may estimate the value of a risk, opportunity or factor that might influence the result. The systems and methods may estimate the amount the chance of being surprised or missing some relevant consideration has been reduced by the analysis. The possibility of black or gray swans can also be estimated, in the phraseology of Nassim Taleb. Systems and methods so disclosed may be employed in financial analyses, project or strategy selection, betting, resolution of disagreements, intelligence analysis, and so on.
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