| 摘要 |
FIELD: agriculture. ^ SUBSTANCE: method involves the long-term annual actual capacity observation and the actual capacity transformation into qualitative values. The actual capacities are transformed into a series of linguistic values, namely "High Capacity", "Medium Capacity", "Low Capacity". Further, the pre-prediction period fragments of the transformed series 1, 2 and 3 years long are separated. The estimated next-year capacity is determined with regard to the recurrence of the pre-prediction period fragments in the transformed series over the years of observation, and a correction factor considering the relative recurrence of the pre-prediction period fragments, by formula: where i is a number of a pre-prediction period fragment, i=1, 2, 3; yi is raw estimated next-year capacity determined with regard to the recurrence of the i-th pre-prediction period fragment in the transformed series over the years of observation; ki is a correction factor considering the relative recurrence of the i-th pre-prediction period fragment. ^ EFFECT: higher reliability of capacity prediction. ^ 5 tbl, 2 ex |
