PREDICTION ACCURACY EVALUATION SYSTEM AND PREDICTION ACCURACY EVALUATION PROGRAM

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To obtain an index for appropriately selecting a merchandise inventory management system by more accurately evaluating a prediction accuracy. Ž

SOLUTION: A single regression expression calculation part 121 of a prediction index calculating device 102 calculates a single regression expression about a plurality of result values relating to shipping of merchandise recorded as past data 201 and a predicted value corresponding to each result value. A prediction accuracy calculating part 122 of the prediction index calculating device 102 calculates prediction accuracy on the basis of a difference between the gradient a of a single regression straight line y=ax expressed by the single regression expression and the gradients of straight lines obtained by respectively connecting points (X and Y) on a graph to an origin when the past data 201 is plotted on the graph with the plurality of result values and the predicted value corresponding to the each result value as both axes. Concretely, cos2θ is calculated in each of the points (X and Y) about angles θ formed between the single regression straight line y=ax and the straight lines obtained by respectively connecting the points (X and Y) to the origin. Then, the average value of the cos2θ is calculated as prediction accuracy. Ž

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