Clinical Trial Phase Simulation Method and Clinical Trial Phase Simulator For Drug Trials

摘要

A clinical trial phase simulation method for drug trials, which method allows to predict the trend of the results of a clinical trial phase of a drug with the steps of providing a database comprising for each of a certain number of individuals a predefined number of independent variables each of which corresponds to a certain clinical parameter relevant or characteristic for a disease condition against which the drug to be tested is oriented and at least a further independent variable describing the specific treatment to which the individual has been subjected between at least two different treatments one with the said drug and the second with a placebo or with another known drug, the database comprising also for each individuals one or more dependent variables describing the effects of the said treatments; carryings out an input variable selection; adding to the independent variables selected as input variables the dependent variables describing the effects of the treatments; training and validating an artificial neural network with the selected variables as input variables and with the dependent variables; interrogating the said neural network by inputting the values of the variable describing one of the treatments and obtaining as an output the variable values of the effectiveness of the treatment to which the inputted values of the variable of the treatment correspond according to the trained artificial neural network.