| 摘要 |
A computer implemented method for improving project risk management based on (a) a quantitative analysis of risks affecting activities, i.e., the root factors leading to cost and time overruns on an activity by activity basis, and (b) an optimization of the resources allocation to each activity in the project plan, is employed to maximize the probability of completing projects on time and within-budget. The method can be employed prior to proceeding with one or more projects, but is also advantageous in that it is adaptive in the sense that more information can be learned during the course of a project about the risk factors present in the project, and this information is used to enable dynamically re-allocating resources to ensure a better outcome given an updated risk profile. Preferably, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is used to capture how risk factors identified by project managers influence individual activity durations.
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