| 摘要 |
A method for modelling of the public health service regional system comprises the quantitative evaluation of therapeutoc institutions. The clinical examination of physical persons, laboratory researches of blood and urine tests, performing of electrocardiographic, ultrasonic and photofluorographic examinations, determination of diagnosis, number of 60-year-old persons and upwards, number of persons with the secondary and higher education, number of persons of ethnic minorities, number of emigrants, number of town-dwellers, number of persons which have the income under the official minimum, and also numbers of hospitalized patients, number of hospital beds, duration of patient hospital stay, number of bed-days are determined in dinamics, after that the mathematical models of each indices accepted for the analysis are formed, at that each of them is adopted as an index of optimum (Y), while the other indices are adopted as influential variables (X ensemble), and the direction and description are determined by the method of multiple linear regression. The adequacy of regression rate is estimated by the sigmal deviate coefficients of regression rate. If three sigmal deviates exceed the index of regression rate, the proper index is not included into a mathematical model. The regression efficiency is determined by means of the calculation of coefficient of multiplex linear correlation. If its value is more than 0.5 (r > 0.5), the model is considered effective. Determined links between indexes are represented graphically as a recursively-sectional chart for prognostication of the of the public health service regional system state. |
