| 摘要 |
<p><P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a technique for performing accurately selecting a model to diagnose a prediction result in detail in response to changes of an information source. <P>SOLUTION: This device comprises an initial model generation part 32 for generating a model series by use of successively input time-series data; a prediction error calculation part 34 for calculating, every input of new time-series data, a prediction error thereof from the generated model series; a model series candidate generation part 35 for forming a plurality of new model series candidates when the error between the newly input time-series data and the model series is larger than a predetermined error; an optimum model series selection part 37 for selecting an optimum model series from the plurality of model series candidate and defining this model series as a new model series; a prediction value calculation part 38 for calculating and outputting prediction of a possible future value by use of the model series; and a prediction result diagnosis part 39 for diagnosing, for the value output by the prediction value calculation part, the reason why such a prediction value was derived, and additionally outputting the result to the output of the prediction value. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2008,JPO&INPIT</p> |
