| 摘要 |
FIELD: medicine, epidemiology. ^ SUBSTANCE: the present innovation deals with predicting sickness rate due to tick-borne infections (TI) and planning antiepidemic procedures in natural foci. Prediction of TI-induced sickness rate should be fulfilled by registering it during intervals being equal to 5 d, for time period - t. It is necessary to determine the value for smoothing seasonal constituent - S(t), which for the first year of 3-yr-long cycle corresponds to S1(t), for the second year - S2(t), for the third year - S3(t), moreover, where a0=0; a1: for S1(t) corresponds to "-0.111", for S2(t) corresponds to "-0.977", and for S3(t) corresponds to "0.362"; b1: for S1(t) corresponds to "2.155", for S2(t) corresponds to "4.619", and for S3(t) corresponds to "-1.813"; ¶/t: for S1(t) corresponds to 6¶, for S2(t) corresponds to 6¶, and for S3(t) corresponds to 7.6¶; t - the number of periods of trigonometric functions which should be chosen in accordance with the number of maximums of time period. Prediction of TI-induced sickness rate should be carried out by the following formulas that enable to determine the predicted quantity of cases of TI sickness rate during time interval: for the first year of 3-yr-long cycle Y1(t)*=-4.48+5.15t-0.41t2+0.01t3+S1(t); for the second year of 3-yr-long cycle Y2(t)*=-2.44+3.08t-0.5t2-0.01t3+S2(t); for the third year of 3-yr-long cycle Y3(t)*=-4.43+4.82t-0.14t2-0.1t3+S3(t). The innovation enables to calculate TI-induced sickness rate for each year of 3-yr-long cycle of natural-focal infections and in separate period of epidemic season at a 5-d-long interval. ^ EFFECT: higher accuracy and efficiency of prediction. ^ 6 dwg, 3 ex, 6 tbl |
