Method for decision and risk analysis in probabilistic and multiple criteria situations

摘要

This invention relates to a decision device and a family of methods and procedures for representing and analyzing imprecise, vague, and incomplete probabilistic decision and risk problems and/or when a criteria hierarchy is present. The invention allows decision makers to state the problems only with the precision the decision-makers feel they have evidence for. This invention includes methods for stating and analyzing probabilities, values (utilities), and criteria weights with belief distributions over them as well as optimization procedures for fast evaluation of decision rules with respect to such statements. The device can advantageously be software implemented.