Systems, methods and computer program products for modeling uncertain future demand, supply and associated profitability of a good

摘要

A method is provided that includes modeling future demand and/or future supply for a good at one or more segments of a period of time. In accordance with the method, future demand/supply at a respective time segment is modeled based upon a price sensitivity distribution of a unit purchase of the good, as well as a market potential distribution of a number of units of the good in a market associated with the good, during the respective time segment. The price sensitivity distribution and/or the market potential distribution for a respective time segment is based upon a growth rate and an uncertainty for the respective time segment. The method can further include modeling cost and/or profitability of the good at a respective time segment. Profitability can be modeled based upon the demand model and the cost model for the respective time segment.