PROCESS FOR DETERMINING COMPETING CAUSE EVENT PROBABILITY AND/OR SYSTEM AVAILABILITY DURING THE SIMULTANEOUS OCCURRENCE OF MULTIPLE EVENTS

摘要

A method for determining the probability of observing an event. The event may occur either alone or in combination with one or more other events. The method may be non-combinatorial in that it does not require a separate calculation for each simultaneously occurring event, thereby significantly reducing computation time for complex systems having multiple events. Further, the method may be numerically reversed to calculate the probability of an event occurring based upon the number of observations. The method is particularly useful for predicting availability, component failure, or the possibility of a false start in production systems.