Incentive driven forecasting method and apparatus for business goals

摘要

A method and apparatus is used to forecast a goal in a principal-agent environment. The forecast includes providing an agent with a menu of incentive contracts having a sliding-scale between a fixed compensation portion and a at-risk compensation portion that depends on the agent meeting the goal, requesting the agent select the incentive contract combining the fixed compensation portion with the at-risk compensation portion in accordance with the agents private knowledge of the goal at the time of the selection, and forecasting the likelihood of the goal occuring based on the incentive contract selected by the agent using the agent's private knowledge.