| 摘要 |
A Traffic Safety prediction Computer Program (TRAF-SAFE) and sub-models for predicting the number of accidents, injuries and fatalities expected annually at an intersection or series of intersections based on the particular intersection and roadway features. A finite analysis approach to an intersection is used to break the intersection into discrete elements such as lanes, turnbays, stop control signals, and traffic flow rates. The total annual expected accidents can then be calculated as a summation of the interrelation of the individual elements. A Poisson's distribution is used to statistically estimate the likelihood of the individual vehicles occurring within a discrete time frame being investigated. The conflict probabilities between various permutations of the traffic flow is then calculated and summed to determine the number of conflicts for the intersection or roadway. The conflicts are then converted to expected accidents, and the accident level is converted to injury involvements and Safety Levels of Service for the intersection and roadway.
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