METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR FORECASTING OPERATION LIMIT OF SHIPS IN HARBORS

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a forecasting method for ocean waves capable of forecasting the occurrence of long-cycle waves affecting the moorage of ships in 1 to 3 days later.

SOLUTION: The method comprises the steps of: obtaining information on parameters of positions, central pressures, radiuses of stormy winds and the like concerning typhoons; estimating future parameters after a time T1has passed by Kalman filters based on the information; calculating a significant wave height and a significant period within the typhoon using the estimated parameters; calculating the time when ocean waves within the typhoon reach an estimated point; obtaining ocean wave data at the estimated point; and calculating and estimating a significant wave height and a significant period of the estimated point at the time when the ocean waves within the typhoon reach the estimated point. A significant wave height and a significant period in 1 to 3 days at the estimated point can be forecast with smaller number of data inputs in comparison with conventional climate-forecasting modes, and the occurrence of long-cycle waves affecting the inside of harbors can be forecast.

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