| 摘要 |
A system for predicting a demand for repair parts in which trouble rate in future of the repair parts can be presumed accurately by a computer and a reliable demand prediction is possible. The system has a database 1 that collects data of number of troubles, causes of troubles and number of years that have elapsed with respect to a kind of repair parts on the basis of the number of repair parts exchanged owing to troubles within a guarantee period; summing up means 11 that extracts from said database 1 troubles owing to durability deterioration from the causes of troubles to sum up the number of troubles owing to durability deterioration for each year elapsed; yearly trouble rate calculating means 12 that calculates a trouble rate of the repair parts for each year that has elapsed from the number of troubles summed up for each year elapsed and from the number of existing products for each year elapsed; trouble rate presuming means 13 that presumes a trouble rate of the repair parts after the guarantee period has elapsed from the calculated trouble rate of the repair parts for each year that has elapsed; and market demand predicting means 14 that calculates market scale in future of the repair parts from the presumed trouble rate of the repair parts after the guarantee period has elapsed and from a presumed number of the existing products in future to predict a demand for the repair parts.
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