| 摘要 |
<p>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a risk evaluation method for ship disasters with high practicality by which the number of disaster development scenarios for performing the simulation of result analysis, is reduced, and yet the certainty of the estimation of life loss is enhanced. SOLUTION: In this risk evaluation method for ship disasters to be used for risk evaluation when evaluating the safety of a ship probabilistically, an event tree is prepared for elements having any influence on results in events which are likely to happen in disasters to be evaluated (S101), and the probability density function of a successful time for disaster suppressing countermeasures is prepared for each event sequence obtained from the event tree (S105), and the elements for classification by case leading to the complication of the event tree are taken out of the event tree (S106). Then, disaster development simulation and evacuation simulation is carried out based on the probability density function (S107). Moreover, the upper limit and lower limit of the risk of each event sequence is calculated based on each simulation result (S110), and the upper limit and lower limit of the whole disaster risks can be calculated from each of the limits of the risk (S111).</p> |
