DEMAND FORECASTING METHOD IN PARTS INVENTORY CONTROL

摘要

A group of low-frequency parts occurring at frequencies lower than a specified frequency is extracted and classified into a plurality of categories based on parameters indicating demand features, demand occurrence probability distributions are calculated for respective categories based on the parameters, Monte Carlo simulation is run based on the calculated demand occurrence probability distributions to calculate occurrence frequency probability distributions for the number in demand during a specified period of time, and the future number in demand of a group of low-frequency parts are forecast based on the calculated occurrence frequency probability distributions. This method used in a parts inventory control can forecast accurately the future number in demand of a group of low-frequency parts involving a monthly demand of up to one unit.