| 摘要 |
PURPOSE: A method for forecasting goods and service demand using modified diffusion model and currency demand model is provided to forecast subscription and currency demand. CONSTITUTION: A relation between goods or services is established and goods or services is classified by type(401). An attribution and level of each services is decided for conjoint analysis(402). A service supply scenario per each enterprises is prepared to estimate a function of distribution network level and a function of service recognition degree(403). A consumer buying intent rate is estimated by performing simulation according to estimation of consumer buying intent rate to estimate market volume per each service types(404). If the consumer buying intent rate is reliable, market share per each enterprises is estimated by surveying degree of customer satisfaction per each enterprises(405,406). Subscription and currency demand per each enterprises and market sales amount are estimated successively(407,408).
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