| 摘要 |
PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To enable easy and highly accurate estimation of the flow rate of its own dam at a specified time in the future using an estimation model to which the present flow rate of its own dam and precipitation in a basin between a time in the past and a specified time in the future. SOLUTION: Firstly, a neural network is built using actual result values such as the flow-in rate in the past and the average precipitation in a basin. Then, the flow-in rate of its own dam after about 24 hours (the average flow rate in one-hour between 23 hours and 24 hours in the future) is estimated with the flow-in amount of its own dam and the average precipitation in the basin including the forecast value of precipitation as input variables. Namely, an instantaneous flow-input (normally, the hourly average value) after a predetermined time in the future is estimated (point-estimation) with the flow rate, precipitation and weather forecast being known as of a time point of estimation as input variables to the neural network.
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