| 摘要 |
A method and system for evaluating health care provider performance, forecasting health care resource consumption on a macroeconomic scale, and optimizing the allocation of health care resource. The method includes the steps of a) providing patient discharge data which includes an address field indicating one of a plurality of micro-geographical areas (MGAs) wherein a patient resides, b) establishing a referral population for a subject health care provider based upon the market share it has for each cohort in each MGA, c) calculating occurrence rates of medical service demand for the referral population, d) providing and applying population growth factors to the referral population thereby projecting it to a future time, e) applying the occurrence rates to the projected referral population thereby forecasting the consumption of health resources, and f) allocating health care resources in accordance with the forecast. The invention can also factor into the forecast the expected caseload demand from undeveloped or proposed communities. In addition, the invention optionally computes repatriatable caseload volume, i.e. medical service demand which has gone to another health care provider but could be handled by the subject health care provider, and adds this volume to the forecast. Finally, the invention provides for a method for efficiently allocating health resources amongst neighbouring health care providers, based on either current or forecasted medical service demand data. |
