| 摘要 |
A system (10) and method (42, 44, 46, 48, 52, 54) for generating an index (38, 132, 40, 134) commensurate with the degree to which a tube array degrades over a period of time due to corrosion in a particular operating environment. A data array (62, 114) is created defining the number of tubes in the tube array, a plurality of time points defining time intervals during which the degradation is to be assessed, and operating conditions that induce corrosion during each time interval. The expected degradation value of the array is computed over each of a plurality of time points using a deterministic failure model (88) having at least one parameter (102, 104, 106) that is assumed constant at each time point. For each time point and at least one parameter, a plurality of values of the parameter (108, 110) that deviate from the assumed constant value, are generated. For each time point, a plurality of degradation values are computed using the deterministic model with each of the plurality of deviated values of the parameter, thereby defining a distribution (34) of degradation values at the time point surrounding the expected degradation value (36, 130) at the time point. An index (38, 132, 40, 134) is generated from the distribution of values, commensurate with the uncertainty at each time point, in the expected degradation value (36, 130) as computed by the deterministic model.
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