| 摘要 |
<p>PURPOSE:To forecast the latest amount of rainfall at short intervals of time by calculating the gravity center point of the rainfall amount and rainfall density from a rainfall amount distribution chart obtained by calibrating raindrop data obtained by a radar rain gauge with rainfall amount data obtained by a ground rain gauge. CONSTITUTION:A forecasting device 3 calibrates the raindrop data from the radar rain gauge 1 with rainfall amount data from the ground rain gauge 2 at prescribed intervals of time to generate a rainfall amount distribution chart at prescribed intervals of time, thereby calculating the rainfall amount gravity center and rainfall density. Then the movement track of the rainfall amount gravity center is found from the difference between rainfall amount gravity center points of adjacent times and moved to the gravity center point of a forecasted object area. Further, the transition track of the rainfall density is found from the difference in rainfall density between adjacent times. Further, the future moving speed forecasted value and rainfall density forecasted value are calculated from the moving speed data on the rainfall amount gravity center point and the transition track of the rainfall density. Here, the mean value of the amount of rainfall in an area traced back on the movement track of the estimated object area by a moving speed forecasted value is found and multiplied by a variation coefficient obtained from the rainfall density forecasted value to obtain the rainfall amount forecasted value of the object area to be forecasted.</p> |
