| 摘要 |
PURPOSE:To accurately predict furnace heat variation in a blast furnace without any delay by introducing the min. value of solution loss carbon quantity or the max. value of nitrogen content in furnace top gas at the prescribed interval of time as variable into MA term in ARMA model. CONSTITUTION:The tracing operational result of the blast furnace is used and variation with passing time of the furnace heat level in the blast furnace is predicted by the ARMA model to stabilize the blast furnace operation. In the above blast furnace heat prediction method, the min. value of the solution loss carbon quantity showing the reducing condition in the blast furnace at the prescribed interval of time or the max. value of the nitrogen content in the furnace top gas components having intense negative correlation with the above solution loss carbon quantity by gas chromatography at the prescribed interval of time is introduced in the MA term as variable. Further, in the case of plural iron tapping holes, it is necessary that each iron tapping hole uses the different ARMA model. By this method, the variation of molten iron temp. can be accurately predicted without any delay. |
