| 摘要 |
PURPOSE:To accurately predict furnace heat, especially lowering of the furnace heat in a blast furnace, by adopting ARMA model introducing a variable related to temp. difference at the inner wall in the blast furnace and the max. value of solution loss C quantity, etc., and a variable correcting difference of iron tapping hole into a MA term. CONSTITUTION:At the time of predicting the variation with time of the furnace heat level by the ARMA model using the operational result in the blast furnace, the undermentioned three kinds of variable are used into the MA term. That is, the furnace heat is predicted by adopting (A) the variable related to the temp. difference of the inner wall measured in every the prescribed time intervals by inner wall thermometers set the prescribed position in the blast furnace, (B) the max. value of the above C quantity or the min value of N content in the top furnace gas during the prescribed time and (C) the variable correcting the difference of the iron tapping holes into the MA term. In this way, the variation of the molten iron temp. without any delay can be accurately predicted. |
