| 摘要 |
PURPOSE:To make simple and high-precision forecast possible by identifying a forecast model at each time with past data, and forecasting the quantity of water in a water treatment plant on a basis of the identified forecast model and the latest actual data. CONSTITUTION:Water is taken into a clean water reservoir 3 from a pump #1 through a pump 2 and is distributed to individual demand ends from the reservoir 3; and each instantaneous value Q of the quantity of distributed water is stored in a file of a water quantity forecasting device 5 through a flow rate transmitter 4. Flow rate value data stored at each time during past several days is extracted and is subjected to a prescribed processing to indentify a forecast operation model which obtains the quantity of distributed water for M-number of hours following the current time in accordance with past flow rate actual values. The distibuted water flow rate integral value in past N-number of hours to the current time is substituted in this model to obtain a forecasted total flow rate for M-number of hours following the current time, and a coefficient of the quantity of distibuted water at each time and the forecasted total flow rate are multiplied to obtain an estimate of the quantity of distributed water per unit time for M-number of hours following the current time. |
