COMPANY MEASURE DETERMINATION SUPPORT DEVICE, COMPANY MEASURE DETERMINATION SUPPORT METHOD AND PROGRAM THEREOF

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a device or the like which constructs a purchase action causal model of a consumer which takes brand switching into consideration, predicts merchandise share with high accuracy in executing optional company measures and supports the determination of optimum company measures for maximizing cost-effectiveness.

SOLUTION: This company measures determination support device 1a comprises a consumer questionnaire database 21 including the preceding purchased merchandise and the current purchased merchandise as questionnaire items, and a causal relation database 22 for holding causal relation data between a plurality of probability variables, including the preceding possession of merchandise and the current possession of the merchandise as probability variables. A control part 3 refers to the databases, calculates transition probability matrix of a brand during executing optional company measures according to Bayes' theorem, and calculates future prediction share of its own company merchandise. The control part 3 also determines optimum company measures for maximizing a value obtained by subtracting cost required to execute the company measures from a sales amount of the own company merchandise on the basis of the future prediction share of the own company merchandise.

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