Method and system to model risk of unplanned outages of power generation machine

摘要

A method to determine a risk of failure for a machine including: generating a first value for a risk of failure of the machine, wherein the first value is determined by a first model receiving as an input a condition of the machine and the first model includes a relationship derived from historical machine failures and correlating the input condition of the machine to a value for the risk of failure; generating a second value of the risk of failure of the machine, wherein the second value is determined by a second model receiving as an input information regarding wear or degradation of the machine and the second model includes a relationship correlating the input information regarding wear or degradation to a value for the risk of failure, and determining a total risk of failure based on the first and second values of the risk of failure.

主权项

1. A method to determine an optimum period for off-line repair and/or maintenance of a power generation machine including a turbine, comprising:
providing a turbine including rotating components configured to generate power; inserting a bore scope into an internal portion of the turbine to inspect internal components of the turbine; observing a plurality of failure modes for the machine over a predetermined period of time; compiling a first record of the plurality of failure modes for the machine over a predetermined period of time; generating a first value for a risk of failure of the machine, wherein the first value is determined by a first model including a relationship derived from the first record of the plurality of failure modes including historical failures and correlating the input condition of the machine to a value for the risk of failure; monitoring wear or degradation of the machine with the bore scope at least a first time; recording a second record of the wear or degradation monitored at least a first time; generating a second value of the risk of failure of the machine, wherein the second value is determined by a second model including a relationship correlating the second record regarding wear or degradation to a value for the risk of failure; and determining a total calculated risk of failure based on the first and second values of the risk of failure; setting a threshold risk level of the risk of failure; andtaking the machine off-line for repairs and/or maintenance when the total calculated risk of failure exceeds the threshold risk level.