STATISTICAL APPROACH TO INCORPORATE UNCERTAINTIES OF PARAMETERS IN SIMULATION RESULTS AND STABILITY ANALYSIS FOR EARTH DRILLING

摘要

A method for estimating a probability of a drilling dysfunction or a drilling performance indicator value occurring includes entering drilling-related data having a probability distribution into a mathematical model of a drill string drilling a borehole penetrating the earth and entering drilling parameters into the model for drilling the borehole. The method further includes performing a plurality of drilling simulations using the model, each simulation providing a probability of the drilling dysfunction occurring or a probability of a drilling performance indicator value occurring with associated drilling parameters used in the simulation, selecting a set of drilling parameters that optimizes a drilling objective using the probabilities of the drilling dysfunction occurring or the probabilities of a drilling performance indicator value occurring; and transmitting the selected set of drilling parameters to a signal receiving device.

主权项

1. A method for estimating a probability of a drilling dysfunction occurring or a probability of a drilling performance indicator value occurring, the method comprising:
entering drilling-related data having a probability distribution into a mathematical model of a drill string drilling a borehole penetrating the earth; entering drilling parameters into the model for drilling the borehole; and performing a plurality of drilling simulations using the model, each simulation providing a probability of the drilling dysfunction occurring or a probability of a drilling performance indicator value occurring with associated drilling parameters used in the simulation; selecting a set of drilling parameters that optimizes a drilling objective using the probabilities of the drilling dysfunction occurring or the probabilities of a drilling performance indicator value occurring; and transmitting the selected set of drilling parameters to a signal receiving device; wherein entering drilling-related data, entering drilling parameters, performing a plurality of drilling simulations and selecting a set of drilling parameters are performed using a processor.