OPTIMIZATION OF PUMPING SCHEDULE BASED ON WATER DEMAND FORECASTING USING COMBINATED MODEL OF ARIMA AND EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

摘要

The present invention relates to the forecasting of water demand, a system for optimizing the operation of a water supply/drainage pump using the same, and a method of the system, wherein the system optimizes the operation of a reservoir pump through the accurate forecasting of water demand, thereby minimizing the cost of power required for operating the pump. More specifically, the present invention relates to the forecasting of water demand using an ARIMA model and an exponential smoothing method, a system for optimizing the operation of a water supply/drainage pump using the same, and a method of the system, wherein the system applies actual water usage in the past and external influence data to the ARIMA model and forecasts water demand; applies the error between the actual water usage and forecasted water demand in the past to the exponential smoothing method and corrects the water demand forecasted by the ARIMA model, thereby forecasting water demand more accurately; and obtains optimal data the operation time of a reservoir pump based on the accurately forecasted water demand in order to operate the pump, thereby minimizing the cost of power and preventing the shortage of water. According to the present invention, the system for optimizing the operation of a water supply/drainage pump includes a water-demand forecasting model (10) and a pump-operation optimizing schedule module (20). The water-demand forecasting model (10) applies actual water usage data in the past to the ARIMA model and obtains water-demand forecast data; and applies the error of forecasted water demand in the past to the exponential smoothing method and corrects the water-demand forecast data, thereby obtaining water-demand correction data. The pump-operation optimizing schedule module (20) applies the water-demand correction data obtained by the water-demand forecasting model (10) and electricity price data for each time period to an integer programming method, and obtains data for the operation time of the water supply/drainage pump.