USING ANALYTICAL MODELS TO INFORM POLICY DECISIONS

摘要

The power of analytical modeling is added to existing methods for specifying policies. Generally speaking, humans use their knowledge and experience to draft policies at a relatively high level. These policies then incorporate analytical models which provide the intelligence on how to most effectively apply the high-level policy to a particular situation. When a policy is invoked, the analytical model provides up-to-date intelligence at a level of completeness and refinement not possible with previous techniques. As a result, fewer policies need to be drafted, and those few need to be updated less frequently than in previous schemes. Rather than updating the policy itself, the analytical model is automatically updated whenever new data are fed into it. As the analytical model incorporates new observational data, it grows more powerful and thus automatically increases the effectiveness of the high-level policy.