Trend based predictive traffic

摘要

A method for predicting traffic wherein the method is a trend based extrapolation method that uses real time traffic data and historic traffic data to generate a predictive traffic product. The predictive traffic product provides expected traffic speeds for the short term future, for example, between two to twelve hours into the future.

主权项

1. A method for predicting traffic speeds, comprising:
calculating, by a processor, speed differences between real time data and historic data for a plurality of epochs; calculating, by the processor, an average difference of the plurality of epochs, weighting the difference in the most recent epoch most and the difference in the oldest epoch least; calculating, by the processor, a rate of change of the difference between the real time data and the historic data in the last two epochs; calculating, by the processor, a trend value as a sum of the calculated average difference and the calculated rate of change; predicting, by the processor, a speed at a next epoch as a sum of the historic speed for the next epoch and the calculated trend value; and predicting, by the processor, a speed at a future epoch by applying the trend value in a decreasing fashion.