PHYSICALLY-BASED FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND/OR FORECASTING METHODS, APPARATUS, AND SYSTEMS

摘要

Methods and apparatus for modeling well production. Such methods comprise modeling a production of a well (perhaps an open universe, generative model). Methods also comprise determining probability distributions for physical parameters associated with the well by training the model with historic well production data (perhaps using sparse sampling). Such methods also comprise determining a posterior distribution for the model by sampling probability distributions for the parameters. Some methods further comprise determining a posterior distribution for the well's production using the model's posterior distribution. Non-Gaussian (Laplacian) noise can be added to the model. Methods can comprise financially modeling the well. Some methods comprise using MCMC sampling to converge the parameter posterior distribution for the well's production. An EUR for the well can be determined along with an uncertainty associated with the posterior distribution for the production. If desired, some methods comprise modeling multi-phase flow in the well.

主权项

1. A method comprising:
accepting a physically-based, probabilistic, production forecast from a model of a well via an interface; modeling a financial environment associated with the well using a processor in communication with the interface; accepting a set of financial assumptions via the interface; determining probability distributions for financial parameters associated with the well environment by training the model of the well environment with historic data pertinent to the well environment and using the processor; determining a posterior distribution for the model of the well environment by sampling the probability distributions for the parameters associated with the well environment and using the assumptions and the processor; and outputting the posterior distribution for the model of the well environment via the interface.