ELECTRIC POWER MARKET PRICE PREDICTION METHOD

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a method to more precisely predict an electric power market price.

SOLUTION: An electric power market price prediction method includes steps for: creating a supply stack prediction model between power generation capacity and power generation cost of each of a plurality of thermal power plants; correcting the power generation capacity based on the operation/stop pattern of each thermal power plant; correcting a supply stack prediction model based on corrected power generation capacity; creating a maximum electric power demand curve from maximum electric power demand data in the past and highest temperature prediction value data; calculating output values of nuclear electric power generation and the like of the prediction day from performance data in the past; calculating a maximum electric power demand value of the prediction day from the intersection point between the maximum electric power demand curve and the highest temperature value of the prediction day; calculating a maximum thermal power generation demand value of the prediction day by subtracting the output values of the nuclear electric power generation and the like from the maximum electric power demand value; and predicting an electric power market price of the prediction day from the intersection point between the maximum thermal power generation demand value and the corrected supply stack prediction model.

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