发明名称 COHORT HALF LIFE FORECASTING COMBINATION FROM A CONFIDENT JURY
摘要 A forecasting cohort includes a first set of forecasting algorithms and a second set of forecasting algorithms. A half-life of each of the first set of forecasting algorithms and the second set of forecasting algorithms are determined. A half-life weight for each of the first set of forecasting algorithms and the second set of forecasting algorithms at a subsequent time are determined, such that the half-life weights decrease an effect of a forecasting algorithm as time elapses. A confidence level of the forecasting cohort at the subsequent time is determined and used to adjust resource usage.
申请公布号 US2016203410(A1) 申请公布日期 2016.07.14
申请号 US201615075425 申请日期 2016.03.21
申请人 International Business Machines Corporation 发明人 BAUGHMAN AARON K.;EGGENBERGER CHRISTIAN;MALKIN PETER K.;MARZORATI MAURO
分类号 G06N7/00 主分类号 G06N7/00
代理机构 代理人
主权项 1. A method comprising: generating, by one or more processors, a forecasting cohort of forecasting algorithms, wherein the forecasting cohort comprises a first set of forecasting algorithms of a first type of forecasting algorithm, and wherein the forecasting cohort further comprises a second set of forecasting algorithms of a second type of forecasting algorithm; determining, by one or more processors, a half-life of each of the first set of forecasting algorithms and the second set of forecasting algorithms, wherein the half-life describes a subsequent time at which a forecasting algorithm has reached half of its forecast horizon as measured from an initial time; determining, by one or more processors, a half-life weight for each of the first set of forecasting algorithms and the second set of forecasting algorithms, wherein half-life weights decrease an effect of a forecasting algorithm as time elapses; determining, by one or more processors, a confidence level of the forecasting cohort at the subsequent time, wherein the confidence level is based on the half-life weight of each of the first set of forecasting algorithms and the second set of forecasting algorithms; utilizing, by one or more processors, the confidence level of the forecasting cohort at the subsequent time to adjust resource usage; receiving, by one or more processors, sensor readings from a device, wherein the sensor readings describe current conditions of the device, and wherein the device includes resources; predicting, by one or more processors, future usage of the resources in the device based on the confidence level of the forecasting cohort; and reallocating, by one or more processors, the resources used by the device based on the predicted future usage.
地址 Armonk NY US