| 摘要 |
A process for predicting response rates, such as to a marketing campaign. In general, the process involves collecting data concerning past transactions; using past transaction data to identify bins, or groups, of customers exhibiting similar purchase behavior in the past; summarizing (statistically) the average purchase behavior for each bin of customers and compiling the bin statistics for use in campaign planning; assign customers to appropriate bins (previously identified and statistically described) based on their past and most recent purchasing records; using the previously calculated bin statistics to estimate the likely number of purchasers and expected average revenue for each bin of customers; calculating a predicted total revenue by summing expected average revenues for each bin; calculating a predicted response rate; executing the marketing campaign; collecting data for new transactions; comparing the predicted and actual revenue and response rates; and using these comparisons to adjust and improve the methods of prediction for use in future campaigns.
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