DEVICE AND METHOD FOR PREDICTING NUMBER OF LIGHTNING ACCIDENT FAILURE, PROGRAM AND RECORDING MEDIUM

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To improve the efficiency of a maintenance operation by predicting the occurrence of a lightning failure in an arbitrary period, and securing repair components or maintenance personnel according to the scale of the failure in the period.

SOLUTION: This device is provided with a failure number prediction part 2; a storage part 3; a prediction data output part 4; a lightning data input part 5; a service area information input part 6; lightning database 7; and an equipment database 8. The lightning data input part 5 acquires information relating to lightning from the lightning database 7. The service area information input part 6 acquires information relating to equipment from the equipment database 8. A failure number prediction part 1 substitutes the information in a prediction formula: Nd2=k2×(Nt2×Ld2)X to calculate the predicted failure number. In the formula, Nd2 is lightning damage failure density; Nt2 is storage density; Ld2 is lightning density; k2 is regression coefficient; and x is regression multiplier. The value of x is set so as to be any of 0.5, 1, a value which is larger than 0.5, and a value which is smaller than 1 according to the equipment circumstances of a service area in which failure number prediction is carried out.

COPYRIGHT: (C)2008,JPO&INPIT